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2014 Senate · ME

Maine People's Resource Center · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 906 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.3% · Republican 57.4%

R+20.1

The certified result

Democrat 31.50% · Republican 68.46%

R+37.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.3 − 57.4 = -20.10
  2. Actual margin = 31.498 − 68.458 = -36.960
  3. Signed miss = -20.10 − (-36.960) = 16.860
  4. Absolute miss = |16.860| = 16.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34383, race ID 9 (538 database).