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2014 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 926 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 42%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.46% · Republican 46.12%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.459 − 46.121 = 2.338
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.338) = -1.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.338| = 1.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34384, race ID 1225 (538 database).