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2014 Governor · FL

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.077) = 4.078
  4. Absolute miss = |4.078| = 4.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34387, race ID 1253 (538 database).