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2014 Governor · IA

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 1,129 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 57%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%

R+21.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 57 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-21.721) = -1.279
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.279| = 1.279

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34388, race ID 1226 (538 database).