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2014 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 49.8%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 49.8 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-7.683) = 3.483
  4. Absolute miss = |3.483| = 3.483

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34389, race ID 17 (538 database).