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2014 House · GA-12

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 47.3%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.25% · Republican 54.75%

R+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 47.3 = -1.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.247 − 54.753 = -9.506
  3. Signed miss = -1.60 − (-9.506) = 7.906
  4. Absolute miss = |7.906| = 7.906

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34389, race ID 5457 (538 database).