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2014 Governor · SD

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 611 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 54%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 25.43% · Republican 70.47%

R+45.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 54 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 25.432 − 70.467 = -45.035
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-45.035) = 25.035
  4. Absolute miss = |25.035| = 25.035

The poll overstated the Democrat by 25.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34391, race ID 1229 (538 database).