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2014 Senate · NH

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 940 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (3.244) = 3.756
  4. Absolute miss = |3.756| = 3.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34393, race ID 8 (538 database).