Skip to content

2014 Governor · IL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,064 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.35% · Republican 50.27%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.347 − 50.270 = -3.923
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-3.923) = 5.922
  4. Absolute miss = |5.922| = 5.922

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34395, race ID 1252 (538 database).