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2014 Senate · IL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,064 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.55% · Republican 42.70%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.549 − 42.695 = 10.854
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.854) = -0.854
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.854| = 0.854

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34395, race ID 4 (538 database).