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2014 Governor · MD

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 44%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.25% · Republican 51.03%

R+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 44 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.248 − 51.028 = -3.780
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.780) = -1.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.220| = 1.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34396, race ID 1241 (538 database).