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2014 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 949 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28.1% · Republican 59.4%

R+31.3

The certified result

Democrat 28.98% · Republican 67.85%

R+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28.1 − 59.4 = -31.30
  2. Actual margin = 28.984 − 67.853 = -38.869
  3. Signed miss = -31.30 − (-38.869) = 7.570
  4. Absolute miss = |7.570| = 7.570

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34397, race ID 35 (538 database).