2014 Senate · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 459 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 39%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.15% · Republican 48.34%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 39 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 49.150 − 48.338 = 0.812
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (0.812) = 9.188
- Absolute miss = |9.188| = 9.188
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34409, race ID 16 (538 database).