Skip to content

2014 Senate · AK

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 42%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.83% · Republican 47.96%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 42 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.833 − 47.962 = -2.129
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.129) = -1.870
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.870| = 1.870

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34411, race ID 12 (538 database).