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2014 Senate · NC

Harper Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 511 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.565) = -0.436
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.436| = 0.436

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34412, race ID 14 (538 database).