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2014 Governor · AR

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 967 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-13.942) = 6.942
  4. Absolute miss = |6.942| = 6.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34415, race ID 1232 (538 database).