Skip to content

2014 Senate · AR

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 967 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.43% · Republican 56.50%

R+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.430 − 56.497 = -17.067
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-17.067) = 10.067
  4. Absolute miss = |10.067| = 10.067

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34415, race ID 32 (538 database).