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2014 Senate · NH

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 544 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.244) = -7.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.244| = 7.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34417, race ID 8 (538 database).