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2014 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 50%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.10% · Republican 51.71%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.105 − 51.706 = -3.601
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.601) = 2.600
  4. Absolute miss = |2.600| = 2.600

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34423, race ID 5574 (538 database).