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2014 House · MT-1

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 604 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.41% · Republican 55.41%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.409 − 55.405 = -14.996
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.996) = 2.996
  4. Absolute miss = |2.996| = 2.996

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34429, race ID 5566 (538 database).