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2014 Senate · NC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 802 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.565) = 1.564
  4. Absolute miss = |1.564| = 1.564

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34440, race ID 14 (538 database).