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2014 Senate · KY

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.72% · Republican 56.19%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.721 − 56.188 = -15.467
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-15.467) = 8.467
  4. Absolute miss = |8.467| = 8.467

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34441, race ID 15 (538 database).