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2014 Senate · LA

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2014-11-24 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 57%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.06% · Republican 55.94%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 57 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.065 − 55.935 = -11.870
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-11.870) = -12.130
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.130| = 12.130

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34469, race ID 1470 (538 database).