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2014 Senate · LA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-12-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 56%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.06% · Republican 55.94%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.065 − 55.935 = -11.870
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-11.870) = -4.130
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.130| = 4.130

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34470, race ID 1470 (538 database).