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2014 Senate · LA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-11-20 (16 days before the election) · 754 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 55%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.06% · Republican 55.94%

R+11.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.065 − 55.935 = -11.870
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-11.870) = -3.130
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.130| = 3.130

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34471, race ID 1470 (538 database).