2014 Senate · LA
Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2014-11-18 (18 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 56%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.06% · Republican 55.94%
R+11.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 56 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 44.065 − 55.935 = -11.870
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-11.870) = -3.130
- Absolute miss = |-3.130| = 3.130
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34472, race ID 1470 (538 database).