2014 Senate · LA
Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-16 (20 days before the election) · 761 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.06% · Republican 55.94%
R+11.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 44.065 − 55.935 = -11.870
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-11.870) = 0.870
- Absolute miss = |0.870| = 0.870
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34473, race ID 1470 (538 database).