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2014 Senate · SC

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 917 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 49%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.83% · Republican 54.27%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 49 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.831 − 54.266 = -17.435
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-17.435) = -2.564
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.564| = 2.564

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34504, race ID 11 (538 database).