2014 Senate · IA
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 617 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.76% · Republican 52.10%
R+8.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 43.761 − 52.100 = -8.339
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.339) = 7.339
- Absolute miss = |7.339| = 7.339
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34513, race ID 26 (538 database).