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2014 House · NY-1

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.70% · Republican 43.61%

R+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.698 − 43.607 = -4.909
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-4.909) = -0.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.091| = 0.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35904, race ID 5591 (538 database).