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2014 House · NY-21

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 50%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.27% · Republican 43.85%

R+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 50 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.269 − 43.851 = -14.582
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.582) = -3.418
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.418| = 3.418

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35906, race ID 5611 (538 database).