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2014 House · NY-24

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 704 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.70% · Republican 46.15%

R+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.705 − 46.152 = -10.447
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-10.447) = 0.447
  4. Absolute miss = |0.447| = 0.447

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35908, race ID 5614 (538 database).