2014 House · NY-18
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 682 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.83% · Republican 35.63%
D+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 40.830 − 35.628 = 5.202
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.202) = -0.202
- Absolute miss = |-0.202| = 0.202
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35912, race ID 5608 (538 database).