2014 House · NJ-5
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 427 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.30% · Republican 55.41%
R+12.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 43.303 − 55.408 = -12.105
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-12.105) = 1.106
- Absolute miss = |1.106| = 1.106
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35916, race ID 5580 (538 database).