Skip to content

2014 House · CA-52

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 551 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.59% · Republican 48.41%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.587 − 48.413 = 3.174
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.174) = -4.174
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.174| = 4.174

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35917, race ID 5404 (538 database).