2014 House · CA-21
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 554 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.17% · Republican 57.83%
R+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.166 − 57.834 = -15.668
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-15.668) = 10.668
- Absolute miss = |10.668| = 10.668
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35922, race ID 5373 (538 database).