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2014 House · MA-9

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 302 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.95% · Republican 44.99%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.947 − 44.991 = 9.956
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (9.956) = -6.956
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.956| = 6.956

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35946, race ID 5531 (538 database).