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2014 House · IL-10

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.70% · Republican 51.30%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.702 − 51.298 = -2.596
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.596) = 0.595
  4. Absolute miss = |0.595| = 0.595

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36080, race ID 5473 (538 database).