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2014 House · UT-1

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 201 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 57%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.01% · Republican 64.78%

R+36.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 57 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.010 − 64.776 = -36.766
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-36.766) = 4.767
  4. Absolute miss = |4.767| = 4.767

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36089, race ID 5731 (538 database).