Skip to content

2014 House · UT-2

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 207 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 58%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.55% · Republican 60.82%

R+28.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 58 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.551 − 60.822 = -28.271
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-28.271) = -3.728
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.728| = 3.728

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36089, race ID 5732 (538 database).