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2014 House · UT-3

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 219 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 19% · Republican 70%

R+51.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.48% · Republican 72.21%

R+49.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 19 − 70 = -51.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.485 − 72.206 = -49.721
  3. Signed miss = -51.00 − (-49.721) = -1.278
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.278| = 1.278

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36089, race ID 5733 (538 database).