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2014 House · FL-13

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2014-02-25 (14 days before the election) · 1,269 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.62% · Republican 48.52%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.619 − 48.520 = -1.901
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.901) = 1.901
  4. Absolute miss = |1.901| = 1.901

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36332, race ID 1777 (538 database).