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2015 House · MS-1

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2015-05-28 (5 days before the election) · 509 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 54%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.03% · Republican 69.97%

R+39.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.027 − 69.973 = -39.946
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-39.946) = 22.946
  4. Absolute miss = |22.946| = 22.946

The poll overstated the Democrat by 22.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36333, race ID 8722 (538 database).