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2014 House · LA-6

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-11-17 (19 days before the election) · 793 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 61%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.57% · Republican 62.43%

R+24.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 61 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.572 − 62.428 = -24.856
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-24.856) = -1.143
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.143| = 1.143

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36458, race ID 5512 (538 database).