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2014 House · NY-18

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 40%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.83% · Republican 35.63%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 40 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.830 − 35.628 = 5.202
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.202) = 0.798
  4. Absolute miss = |0.798| = 0.798

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 36462, race ID 5608 (538 database).