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2013 Senate · MA

Western New England University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2013-06-18 (7 days before the election) · 566 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 41%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (10.199) = -2.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.199| = 2.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 41673, race ID 1472 (538 database).