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2010 Governor · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.002) = -3.998
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.998| = 3.998

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 42411, race ID 1299 (538 database).