2009 Governor · NJ
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2009-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 43%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.88% · Republican 48.46%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 44.879 − 48.457 = -3.578
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.578) = 2.578
- Absolute miss = |2.578| = 2.578
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 42543, race ID 1311 (538 database).