2004 President · FL
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 48%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-5.007) = 7.006
- Absolute miss = |7.006| = 7.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4299, race ID 764 (538 database).