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2004 President · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.673) = 2.673
  4. Absolute miss = |2.673| = 2.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4316, race ID 760 (538 database).